Forecasts in general are 99% data and 1% fact - Data is translated into statistics - trends for example and a plethora of conventional wisdom outcomes -

of course since something will happen and there are so many forecasts - a lot of the forecasts will appear accurate - for the wrong reasons - and based on a very short sighted view of what is being predicted.

In fact the economic outlook despite the stock market indexes and all the other cosmetics is extremely gloomy -

the world can not be separated into regions or countries when you evaluate the economy - there is one economy - the world economy -

it is inevitable that those without - will eventually take away from those with - a scary thought -and if you consider yourself fortunate - the question is why?

global warming, war and famine are among the factual basis for this forecast -

politics and religion also play a major role - in neglecting the welfare of all -

but the underlying truth is that value is not wealth and the price for a morsel of food or drink of water when you will perish without either is infinite - you cannot eat a car, house, gold or currency -

some will argue that the system as it stands helps properly allocate resources but in fact the economic system as it stands is inhuman - and most of the worlds population do not inherit the earth in deference to those few in control -

okay what does this have to do with a forecast -

here it is in a nutshell -

value does not exist in stocks (mutual funds), bonds or currency except in our minds - true value exists in the planets natural resources

since we are rapidly destroying those resources - the value we perceive is derived from what we think rather than what is real - a primary example is the dow jones - although the underlying value of the companies are not worth anything at liquidation nor do they generate enough income to pay a dividend nor would they generate any revenues if consumption were replaced with conservation - people trade off real value for stock and bonds and mony - real value lies in the ability to produce food, have shelter and clothing - and nature is the sole supplier - not us!!!!

a vast majority of the world live and involuntarily depend on the wastefulness of a small minority - to save money those who govern us literally piss in the ocean - but unlike piss in the ocean we are dumping zillions of pounds and gallons of poison - poison from pour wastes and our consumption - nature is being replaced by garbage -

the oceans are rapidly being depleted as a source of food - those effected first are the poor

environmental pollution issues again effect those not able to substitute technology for sanity - air conditioners, water purifiers and air cleaners help the few but not the many -

pollution is many forms is caused by industrial growth - again there are more profits when less money is invested in preserving our environment -

the gap is rapidly widening insofar as correcting these problems - but the awareness of the importance of nature of all peoples on the planet is rapidly growing - those 1% with too much are out of sheer ignorance rapidly becoming enemies of the 99% who just want to live - economics is a tool used to fool themselves and others into thinking what they do is justifiable -

economically the preservation and sustenance as well as the improvement in the health of the world is not based on consumption based models but on on conservation of nature and sharing food, shelter and clothing -

as these tangibles become more of a luxury but still remain a necessity - the value and demand for un-necessary items will rapidly drop effecting the economy of the world and more so the industrialized world - agriculture and aquaculture and just preserving nature will gain in value as intangible assets which have no intrinsic value will diminish - this will begin to happen very slowly in the short term and escalate as consumption grows as well as waste and pollution - at the current rate massive adjustments will have to be made - there will be political upheaval and those with land who nourish it for the betterment of the world at large will prevail -

tho this may seem like a science fiction scenario it will be brought about by the pin being stuck in to the hot air balloons - stocks, bonds, & currencies

the biggest hot air balloon of all - consumption -

99% of consumption is un-necessary - and global warming is a catharsis that will make that obvious to all who live on this planet